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Opinion: $9 AT&T iPhone 3Gs Means An iPhone 5 With No 4s Counterpart, Imminent Release Date

AT&T has dropped the price of its refurb’ed iPhone 3Gs to just $9 with a two-year contract upgrade. Read why this move by AT&T tells us that there won’t be an iPhone 4s — and how we might have to rethink the release date of the iPhone 5.
The iPhone 5 cometh.
So say the reading of the AT&-Tea leaves: AT&T is now selling their refurbished iPhone 3Gs for $9 with a two-year contract extension. This is a fire sale, folks, all in anticipation for AT&T, Verizon, and perhaps Sprint and T-Mobile to pack their coffers full of fresh iPhone 5s. Clearing out the refurb 3Gs at a price of $9 — less than what young parents pay for a pack of diposable diapers these days — is a landmark circumstantial moment that indeed ushers in the near-immiment release of the iPhone 5.
You can get to the original report from Electronista on the iPhone 5 News Ticker by clicking here.
Chances are, even at $9 bucks, the refurb iPhone 3Gs won’t sell like hotcakes — if iPhone 4 sales have slowed over the Summer in anticipation of the iPhone 5′s release, you can bet your bottom dollar that people are buying a $9 refurb 3Gs more for a paperweight or museum piece than an actual smartphone: it is already a virtual relic, and with the advent of the iPhone 5, it is due to become an ancient relic.
iPhone 3Gs as a Clearance Item Means No iPhone 4s
I have never bought into the notion that the next iPhone would be the fabled iPhone 4s. In fact, I don’t think the iPhone 4s ever existed, nor will it ever. Sure — it is possible that Cupertino shipped some top developed a tricked-out iPhone 4 with iOS 5 and the A5 chip prior to the WWDC — but to think that a developer’s iPhone model would magically become the iPhone 4s was a rumor made in the most cynical depth of the iPhone 5 rumor mill.
Thus, now that the iPhone 3Gs is basically being given away for free by AT&T tells us, by extension, that there will be no iPhone 4s. Why? Simply put, there will be no need for a lesser-priced iPhone 4s, as the iPhone 4 is obviously going to be positioned as the value-priced iPhone model against the premium-priced iPhone 5. It would highly irregular and asinine for Apple to peddle the iPhone 5, iPhone 4s, and iPhone 4 all at the same time. What would the 4s offer that the 4 doesn’t?
It doesn’t even bear scrutiny. The 3Gs is being cleared out for the iPhone 4 to be the value model, in preparation for the ascendancy of the iPhone 5. All hail the iPhone 5!
A $9 iPhone 3Gs Tells Us Something about the iPhone 5′s Release Date
As you know, this blog, while reporting on the wide array of prognosticated release ranges for the iPhone 5, has believed personally that the iPhone 5 would be released in late Summer/early Fall, and that the most reasonable timeframe for its announcement would be the “Back to School” period. The news of the 3Gs going on sale now for $9, however, gives me pause, and makes me think that perhaps the iPhone 5 is going to be released even sooner than I thought.
I work in marketing, and more than half of my clients are retailers. Thus, I know from experience that, when an updated product is due out, they hold a big sale to clear out the product that due to become “obsolete.” From retail clients in the U.S. to Australia to Hong Kong, regardless of their product, they all do this.
The thing is, they usually start selling off soon-to-be obsolete product at a bargain price once the stock is already being shipped to their warehouses!
Besides that, promotions in retail have a very short shelf-life; you only get a few days of real sales volume before everyone who was going to take advantage of the sale, does. That’s why retailers will do a “One Day Sale,” or “Weekend Sale.” It’s hard to imagine AT&T will push the $9 pricing of their 3Gs for 6 to 8 weeks before the iPhone 5 is announced. Perhaps they are planning on eventually dropping new 3Gss down to $9 and making the remaining refurb’ed models “free,” but even a schtick like that wouldn’t last 6 to 8 week.
If AT&T follows the logic of all other retail, then this move could be the indication that the iPhone 5 is indeed arriving in August and not September.
Just a thought.

This post was written by: Irfan Jam

Irfan Jam is a professional blogger, web designer and front end web developer. Follow him on Facebook